The population was starving so rapidly that the countryside became a ghastly landscape, where dead bodies lay strewn about, providing a grim feast for the equally famished dogs. A fast-spreading mold ravaged the crops, year after year, leaving the harvests inedible.

Government officials had the power to intervene, yet they chose to remain passive. They dismissed the people’s cries for help as exaggerations. “Their desperation,” they claimed, “stems from a lack of work ethic and poor morals. If hunger was truly the issue, they would toil harder to support themselves. Aid would only foster dependence on the government, weakening the drive for individual labor and delaying the inevitable.”

They argued the issue was not a shortage of food but an overpopulation of an “inferior race.” To them, the suffering was a manifestation of divine will, a cleansing ordained by God.

The Irish Potato Famine

If you read this and thought it sounded like a piece of fan fiction featuring Thanos, I wouldn’t blame you. But this really happened.

Phytophthora infestans was a mold that thrived in wet conditions and reproduced quickly over large swaths of land. It started on the northern coast of America and spread into Canada before making its way in a shipping container to Europe. Its target was the potato, and it was remembered as the Potato Famine.

It made its way to Ireland, and with the help of an indifference it decimated the Irish population. The nutrient dense potato was a staple crop for the Irish. It was an inexpensive crop that was easy to plant and harvest. When the first year’s harvest spoiled, landlords were understanding and the English government that controlled Ireland passed some meager relief measures. By the second year however, landlords were demanding rent and evicting families from one-room mud hut houses that sat on their land. The government grew concerned that the Irish were becoming too dependent on “too much” aid. English Parliament slashed wages and limited food aid. For the very limited aid still available, the English forced the Irish to “prove” the seriousness of their illness and poverty.

But there wasn’t a food shortage in England. The English landlords grew corn on their Irish estates, and the Irish continued to grow, harvest, and ship corn from Ireland to England. It was “God’s will,” they proclaimed, and to intervene would be a sin.

Years before the potato blight ravished the island, there was a researcher named Thomas Malthus. He lived during a time when the population in England was exploding. Death rates were falling along with the infant mortality rate as a result of new medical breakthroughs and sanitation. Malthus wouldn’t know of the Demographic Transition Model; it only came to be years after England (and other European countries) transitioned out of stage two, the exploding population stage.

Mathis did the math and saw that the population would soon face a crisis. Population growth would soon overtake the food supply.

At the time, his ideas would make sense to a common observer. And because he was believable, his error killed or destroyed the lives of millions. The poorest of the poor would starve to death in Ireland, die from starvation-related diseases, or die after eating an infested potato.

Two million took what meager savings they had and purchased a ticket on a Coffin Ship to America. The survival rate on the voyage was around 50% (thus the name), and if they did make it to shore, the Irish faced relentless discrimination. It was common to be pelted with rocks as these starving families stumbled off a ship. It was believed that the Irish carried diseases, and allowing their entry into America would cause a widespread illness. Businesses refused to hire them, either out of fear for their perceived fifth, or fear of losing business.

America is a funny thing. The most patriotic among us pridefully proclaim that we are a nation of immigrants. And with each new generation of immigrants making their way to American soil, the same discrimination, hatred, and fear cloud the mind.

There are at least three reasons we can say with certainty that Malthus was wrong. First, the rapid population growth rates of a stage 2 country will naturally move into the falling and eventual stabilizing growth rates of stages 3 and 4. Second, Malthus failed to factor for human innovation in agricultural production. Food supply has kept up with population growth because humans are an innovative species, and farming techniques–then and now–allow for more food with less labor.

Third, we now know overpopulation isn’t necessarily tied to the number of people on the planet but how we use resources to support that population–the carrying capacity.

Neo-Malthusian Theories & Anti-Natalist Population Policies

Thomas Malthus’s ideas did not die with him, and movements since then that echo his doomsday prophesy form from time to time. These new (neo) theories are called Neo-Malthus. We use the term to describe an old idea made new.

Neo-Malthusian movements have spurred a host of anti-natalist government policies. Anti-natalist policies are those that discourage population growth. Pro-natalist policies are those that promote higher birthrates.

One such Neo-Malthusian movement occurred in the 1960s after a man named Paul Ehrlich wrote a book called The Population Bomb. His book described a global population with out-of-control exponential population growth. Sound familiar? And, just as in Malthus’ day, the panic didn’t seem like an over-reaction. The world was in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model, death and infant mortality rates were falling across the globe, but birthrates had yet to ease.

And just like the words of Thomas Malthus let to policies aimed at easing population growth, so did Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb.

As he hinted at the end of the video, Paul Ehrlich has tweaked his argument a bit. He still believes global population growth is outpacing the Earth’s ability to sustain humankind, but he is much more focused on carrying capacity.

He has a good point. We now know that global population growth will stabilize by the end of this century, but we also know that our resource use is on track to reach the point of catastrophe, and climate change will worsen that problem. Hotter temperatures will mean using even more resources to produce food and sustain our way of life.

It’s an important thing to get right, and approach with a level head and informed discussion. We have too many examples of panic leading to decisions that cause the unnecessary destruction of life. The millions of Irish needlessly died because of predictions that never came to pass. Women and families faced forced sterilizations to drive down birthrates, a process that would have naturally occurred on its own with time.